What the Dallas Stars need to win Game 2 vs Colorado

After a 5-1 loss on Saturday, the Dallas Stars trail the Colorado Avalanche 1-0 in the best-of-seven first-round playoff series.

Game 2 on Monday is not mathematically a must-win for Dallas. But realistically, isn’t it a must-win in the outlook of this series?

To me, that’s a resounding yes. So let’s look at what the Stars need to do to even up the series heading to Denver.

Up the ante on chances

Dallas played a better game Saturday… better than the 0-5-2 stretch and even some of their wins down the stretch of the regular season. But while they had opportunities to tie the game in the third period, I still view the lack of overall chances as an issue.

The Stars finished Game 1 with 25 shots. Colorado blocked 15 more. According to Natural Stat Trick, they created 27 scoring chances (16 5v5) to Colorado’s 26 (18 5v5). That’s just not enough of any of those stats in the circumstances.

Mackenzie Blackwood was starting his first playoff game. Blackwood has a history of inconsistent play — with plenty of excellent goaltending and stealing games on his resume, but also some dips and average stretches. Knowing that, I expected Dallas to throw EVERYTHING at the Colorado net.

Get pucks to the net, get bodies to the net, playoff hockey. It’s a cliche for a reason, and that is true with elite NHL goalies between the pipes. The Stars had the chance to make Blackwood uncomfortable, and I don’t think they did.

As a result, he settled into the game, stopped 24 of 25 and made some spectacular saves down the stretch to win his team the game.

More pucks on and around the net in Game 2 could go a long way.

Harder on your stick

On the positive side, Dallas did get most of its scoring chances from the most dangerous areas of the ice. This is vital because it is one of the main issues I see when the team is struggling — this was very apparent at the end of the season.

The Stars have a tendency to play on the perimeter and maybe overpass, leaving good chances to get pucks on net on the table. Even when they were at their best this season, we saw versions of this, with players fading away or not getting to those areas often enough.

Take a look at the MoneyPuck chart from Game 1 below:

Most of the Stars chances came right around the net. That is excellent news.

That’s what this chart should look like, especially when you consider Dallas playing without Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen. That’s the best time to simplify and create chaos around the opposing net. It’s how I believe Dallas can beat Colorado in the series.

But here’s the problem: they scored one goal.

When you create 17 high-danger chances from great areas of the ice, you need to score more than one goal. Even NST had an expected goals over two for Dallas in the game. If the Stars found a way to convert on one of their great chances, especially early on, this game could look very different.

Who knows how it unfolds if they are tied in the second or playing with the lead? Who knows how Blackwood plays if he allows an early goal? The Stars need to ask those questions of their opponent.

One way to do that is to be harder on their sticks in those tough areas.

Playoff hockey is hard. Very hard. It’s difficult enough to score goals in the NHL regular season, but then you increase the intensity and desperation in the playoffs… there’s not a lot of room out there. That’s why it’s so often the team that can convert on those chances or be a bit harder in important areas that wins the games and series. Simple stuff.

In Game 1, the Stars had a ton of rebound chances around Blackwood. The 28-year-old is a big goalie not known for his elite rebound control. Pucks were available, and quite often. But rarely was Dallas able to get a second opportunity or even get their stick on those rebounds. Just look at the photo at the top of this article…

Credit the Avs for tying up sticks and not allowing Dallas to do so. But you have to find a way.

Colorado is also not a top-5 defensive team. They are susceptible. It showed with the Stars getting to those areas and being given those lanes in the first place. They just need to find a way to be hard enough on their sticks or arrive at the right times to create second and third chance opportunities. If they can do that, I think they score three or more goals and have a far greater chance of winning the games.

STOP. TAKING. PENALTIES.

Obvious, right? But it has been a problem in Dallas for way too long now.

Up until March 1, the Stars were sixth best in the NHL with 163 minor penalties over 59 games. They took just over three penalties per 60 minutes with 6:46 penalty minutes per game. They just didn’t take penalties.

And Stars coach Pete DeBoer often preached how that had become part of their identity. It didn’t overtax their penalty kill, which remained near the top of the league, allowed their best players to stay in the mix and not sit for extended periods, and kept them out of hot water on most nights — leading to the third-best record in the league.

Fast forward to the final month of the season (March 15), and Dallas plummeted to 31st with 61 minors in 17 games. All of a sudden, they were taking close to four penalties per 60 and piling up nearly nine penalty minutes per game. That’s a lot for a team that rarely fights or gets into rough stuff like other clubs do. And it really put them on their heels, resulting in inconsistent play and a rough stretch to finish the regular season.

Colorado somehow does not have a top-5 power play. Maybe they miss Mikko Rantanen (heyyoo!). But they did finish eighth at 24.8 percent, and they have two of the best players in the world. You do not need to give them many chances to make you pay.

In Game 1, Dallas gave Colorado four power plays, including a 90-second 5-on-3 and a double minor. They killed off the 5-on-3 early in the game — notably a very important momentum kill — but also a moment that took their entire team out of the swing of the game right away. They were not able to kill both sides of the double minor later, with Nathan MacKinnon’s shot deflecting off Ilya Lyubushkin and past Jake Oettinger to make it 2-0.

If the Stars have any hope of winning Game 2 and this series, they need to get back to the two, maybe three, penalties per game. If they don’t, there seem to be far too many risks and side effects to overcome.

I’m ready for the Mikko show… or a version of it

I’ll make this quick because you can find endless stories on Mikko Rantanen all over the place right now.

Rantanen has been good, not great, since coming to Dallas. And he has every excuse in the book with all he went through. DeBoer mentioned today how impressive the composure of the Finnish forward has been through all of that.

But at the end of the day, Dallas needs him to be Mikko Rantanen. At least once in a while.

He doesn’t need to win the series for them, as DeBoer said this morning. But he needs to take over a stretch, or a period, or even a game. I would love to see Rantanen’s cannon one-timer on the power play, him driving wide and either taking the puck to the net or using his elite vision and passing to set up teammates, and his physicality and puck protection allow Dallas to tilt the ice in their favor.

Maybe he just needs to find the right linemates, maybe it’s just around the corner, or maybe adjusting to his second new team this season, facing his old team round one, and all that comes with it is weighing on him and we’ll just have to wait until next season to see that next-level Mikko Rantanen we saw in Denver.

I’m not really sure.

What I can say is that Dallas could really use a version of, or some glimpses of, that Rantanen in this series. Really, really.

Enjoy Game 2.

Dallas projected Game 2 lineup

• Granlund – Hintz – Dadonov 
• Marchment – Duchene – Seguin
• Benn – Johnston – Rantanen
• Bäck – Steel – Blackwell

• Lindell – Ceci 
• Harley – Lyubushkin
• Bichsel – Petrovic  

• Oettinger
• DeSmith