NBA power rankings 2026: Who’s gonna win the title, by percentage

For this season’s final power rankings, we’re left with one final question: Who’s gonna win the NBA Finals this season?

TIER ONE: Genuine, unquestioned contenders

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (62-16)

What are their title odds: 33 percent. Oklahoma City has been the league’s best team all season; the Thunder have the know-how, they have a saucier bench mob thanks to Ajay Mitchell’s emergence and the deadline acquisition of Jared McCain.

2. Boston Celtics (53-25)

What are their title odds: 22 percent. Boston was a distant title threat before Jayson Tatum returned; this squad is a fully weaponized one with only minor flaws, such as its big man rotation, now that he’s back.

3. San Antonio Spurs (60-19)

What are their title odds: 12 percent. With Victor Wembanyama, anything’s possible, and everything else about this roster except, perhaps, it’s dead serious, absolute lock to create and make isolation shots lead ball handler, has shown it can complement him.

4. Denver Nuggets (51-28)

What are their title odds: 10 percent. Denver’s surge has been coming at the right time; the defense looks a bit more effective, and Nikola Jokić remains the world’s greatest offensive player. That said, it’s difficult in the West, and Denver must beat two teams above them, right now, as the standings hold to even reach the NBA Finals.

5. New York Knicks (51-28)

What are their title odds: Eight percent. New York occasionally puts it together in a manner you think, Wow, I see the vision, but it’s not often or overwhelming enough, at all times, to really trust in the postseason. That said, this team obviously has advantages against Boston and, if you believe them, Detroit that make them more dangerous.

TIER TWO: Slimmer chances

6. Detroit Pistons (57-22)

What are their title odds: Five percent. Detroit has gone 8-2 without Cade Cunningham, and he should return for the postseason, but despite the team’s lock atop the standings, it’s still a bit hard to trust that shooting inconsistency.

7. Cleveland Cavaliers (50-29)

What are their title odds: Five percent. Cleveland hasn’t turned into anything uniquely different since the trade deadline that it wasn’t before: This remains the same basketball squad with echoes of last season’s dominant romp of the Eastern Conference, just one which still seems that special sauce isn’t quite in their control. Sometimes, it’s there, and you wonder why Cleveland shouldn’t be the conference’s best team as it pours in 3-pointers and two-way play. Other times, the recipe’s just missing something: no tang, not enough zest, and no certainty it can be corrected with what’s left in the fridge.

8. Minnesota Timberwolves (46-32)

What are their title odds: Two percent. Do not count out the team that twice made the conference finals, but Minnesota remains in a problematic situation without clear solutions off its bench and when Rudy Gobert sits.

9. Houston Rockets (49-29)

What are their title odds: One percent. Houston’s struggles are too varied and unsolvable without a proper lead point guard they chose not to acquire, and the offense breaks down too often despite its overall excellence.

10. Los Angeles Lakers (50-28)

What are their title odds: One percent. It’s possible, somehow, Los Angeles survives one round and has Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic return in time to recreate the manner in which they were rolling down the stretch. It’s just unlikely.

11. Charlotte Hornets (43-36)

What are their title odds: One percent. Who knows, you know, because Charlotte has truly been this difficult to match up against, but the Hornets still are too raw and missing too many quality veterans off the bench to trust with certainty.

TIER THREE: The zero percenters start here

12. Phoenix Suns (43-35)

What they’ve been up to: It brings me no love to report the Phoenix Suns, despite their delightful and surprising success this season, are not actually in the postseason running. Alas.

13. Atlanta Hawks (45-34)

What they’ve been up to: We’ve been in ca-caw! territory for some time now. Nickeil Alexander-Walker hasn’t gotten enough credit for his season, and I say that thinking he has gotten a lot of credit! But this isn’t title contention territory, just proof of concept that many aspects of this roster works and can be tried and tested in the coming playoffs before their season ends.

14. Toronto Raptors (43-35)

What they’ve been up to: Toronto has a relative soft schedule and remain pretty much what the team has been all season: an above-average team that has no ceiling to speak of when matched up against the league’s elite. It’s been a fun story, and I’m glad they get a postseason appearance. Scottie Barnes is a first-team all-defense lock, I’ll say that much.

15. Orlando Magic (43-36)

What they’ve been up to: This year was meant to be better, alas, but injuries and an ineffective offense plagued them yet again.

16. Philadelphia 76ers (43-36)

What they’ve been up to: This team simply cannot be trusted to field its stars at the same time; even if they could, we’d still have doubts about whether this roster’s ceiling is high enough.

TIER FOUR: Awaiting the Play-In Tournament

17. Miami Heat (41-37)

What they’ve been up to: Miami seemed, occasionally, to be that likely Miami Heat story: a team against all odds performing more than the sum of its parts. Unfortunately, that’s just no longer the case.

18. L.A. Clippers (40-38)

What they’ve been up to: Kawhi Leonard has been the league’s fifth-best player, something I feel has been rather indisputable; he also can miss just one more game to remain All-NBA eligible, which my fake ballot would happily award him first-team honors. Darius Garland has been the Garland we knew he could be; he hit eight 3s this weekend! This isn’t the Play-In team anyone wants to face, but it’s unlikely any Play-In team can be more than a speed bump to the league’s best two teams.

19. Portland Trail Blazers (40-39)

What they’ve been up to: Portland faltered halfway through the season and never quite matched last year’s end-of-season potential they showed us.

20. Golden State Warriors (36-42)

What they’ve been up to: Golden State has fallen to the No. 10 seed in the West, a slide that’ll stop there. They’ll make the Play-In Tournament, and Stephen Curry will be back for it, but to what end?

TIER FIVE: Nothing left but lottery odds

21. New Orleans Pelicans (25-54)

What they’ve been up to: New Orleans is the most dangerous team among the league’s bottom feeders, one which they can afford since, you know, they outright traded next year’s pick. They’ve at least climbed to the ignoble honor of having only the league’s eight-worst record, not the absolute most dreadful one, which puts the math in the team’s favor that the optics won’t look so bad at the draft lottery come May.

22. Chicago Bulls (29-49)

What they’ve been up to: Chicago finally chose a direction, of sorts, but it didn’t make the end of this season particularly enjoyable for them.

23. Dallas Mavericks (25-53)

What they’ve been up to: Cooper Flagg has returned, probably too belatedly to really make any run at what will now surely be Kon Knueppel’s Rookie of the Year award, although we still must await any end-of-season surprises; it’s still very close and an interesting case study into how role and a team infrastructure play into each rookie’s ability to make impact.

24. Milwaukee Bucks (29-41)

What they’ve been up to: It’s still shocking how good Ryan Rollins has been this season, but even his emergence didn’t prevent what happened this season, one which has been embroiled, yet again, in the will-he-or-won’t-he Giannis Antetokounmpo drama that has moved onto ownership questions and what might be his own manufactured consent to leave this summer.

25. Sacramento Kings (21-58)

What they’ve been up to: This was the league’s seventh-best offense last season; the Kings rest in the league’s bottom-five this year. Sacramento averages 10.2 made 3s this season, which would be the lowest mark for any team in the past five seasons if it holds until the year’s end.

26. Utah Jazz (21-58)

What they’ve been up to: Utah’s defensive questions this season aren’t abysmally concerning to the team’s future: It’s reasonable to expect Jaren Jackson Jr. and Walker Kessler’s returns next year would be the panacea needed to have has been horrific point prevention this year. But it has not been good.

27. Memphis Grizzlies (25-54)

What they’ve been up to: Ty Jerome has been incredible in his limited small sample, posing the question how this season might’ve been different if he hadn’t missed the season’s first half. In truth, it probably wouldn’t have been, but it’s a question to ask all the same.

28. Brooklyn Nets (19-59)

What they’ve been up to: Brooklyn’s offense, always rocky this season, has completely cratered without Michael Porter Jr., which I suppose isn’t the most surprising thing given how little creation there is without him.

29. Washington Wizards (17-61)

What they’ve been up to: Anthony Davis still hasn’t returned and, at this point, probably isn’t expected to. Washington has lost 16 straight and awaits May’s lottery.

30. Indiana Pacers (18-60)

What they’ve been up to: Indiana, like the teams above them, can only wait until this wretched season ends. Pascal Siakam returned, but it wasn’t in time for him to be paired with Ivica Zubac, who appeared in five games before being shut down for the season. Tyrese Haliburton, it’ll be wonderful to have you back next season.