There are flaws in the following study, but it does have some insight into the value of a first round draft pick. ESPN looked at the first round picks from 2000-19 to determine the hit rate by position. The metric they used: whether that pick netted a second contract with that team.
The results, which you can see below, were all over the board, ranging wide receivers (27% hit rate), to centers (92%).
There are so many variables for why a first round pick doesn’t receive a second contract with the team that drafted them. For new Dallas Cowboys corner Kaiir Elam, a former first round pick by the Buffalo Bills, one person is willing to take the brunt for why it didn’t work out there.
That, according to The Buffalo News, is Bills general manager Brandon Beane.
“It didn’t work. And it stinks,” Beane said last week. “And it’s not for a lack of effort on either side here.
“I’m confident a reset for him gives him a chance. I’m rooting for him.”
A chance is all Elam wants. And with the Cowboys, he should have it.
The Cowboys acquired Elam last week, along with a 2025 sixth round pick, for a 2025 5th round pick and a 2026 7th round pick. Elam is still green for a three-year pro. He appeared in 29 games, but only started in 12. He has two interceptions in his career. When next season kicks off, he’ll only be 24.
“Coming into Buffalo, I was a kid who really wanted to improve, and learn, and show off my talents,” Elam said on Monday. “But I was always put in the backseat.”
The Cowboys could have bigger aspirations for Elam. That especially holds true when you consider the current state of their secondary. The Cowboys should get a fully healthy DaRon Bland after a limited season in 2024. The timetable for Trevon Diggs’ return after off-season knee surgery remains to be seen. Dallas also lost veteran slot corner Jourdan Lewis in free agency, opening up some possibilities on how they determine who their best starting group could be.
Elam, as things stand right now, could be competing with second-year corner Caelen Carson, Andrew Booth and a few others for a starting role opposite of Bland as Diggs recovers.
Elam, while young, also fits the bill as a corner that new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus likes. He ran 4.39 40-yard dash at the combine. He’s 6-foot-1 and has longer than 30-inch arms. His comparison coming out of Florida in 2022, according to NFL.com? That was Jaylon Johnson, whom starred for Eberflus and the Chicago Bears.
“I think we talked as soon as we got in the building,” Elam said of Eberflus. “This team has highlighted a lot of guys who can take the ball away, and [Ebeflus’] philosophy is something I really pride myself on.”
Ebeflus will be Elam’s third defensive coordinator in three seasons. There will be a lot to learn before training camp, but Elam says he’s ready for it. He’ll also have one year left on his rookie deal before hitting free agency, barring the Cowboys unexpectedly picking up his fifth-year option.
But here in Dallas, Elam has a chance. In his mind, that’s all he needs.
“I’m coming into a staff that truly believes in me. I feel like everything starts with an opportunity, so I’m able to come in here and compete and show what I can do. That’s all I really want. I don’t need a red carpet or anything like that. I just want to be able to earn it with a fair opportunity. So that’s what I’m going to drive every day to do.
“I’m coming in with a chip on my shoulder and really with a deep breath and really excited to take on whatever comes next.”
