A way-too-early ranking of the Western Conference, which is as tough as it’s ever been

It’s entirely too early to rank the Western Conference, and we’re going to do it anyway.

YOU’RE NOT TRYING

15. Utah Jazz (Last season: 17-65, 15th place)

Utah isn’t trying. This will be the conference’s worst team.

WHAT ARE YOU TRYING?

14. Phoenix Suns (Last season: 36-46, 11th place)

There’s honestly only one player making me question this, and it’s Dillon Brooks. Say what you will, but that dude raises your floor. He does not tolerate a locker room that doesn’t try. Last season, Phoenix didn’t come close to the sum of its parts. By trading Kevin Durant and buying out Bradley Beal, the team’s parts are much worse. They’ll probably fit together better. It’s just a messy roster that I can’t much believe in right now. The offense, still missing true creation or point skills, now has to survive Jalen Green taking the isolations Kevin Durant used to get. And while Mark Williams or Khaman Maluach could turn into defensive anchors, will they do so on this team, no matter how much Brooks barks at his perimeter cohort to defend?

13. Sacramento Kings (Last season: 40-42, 9th place)

This is a deeply boring, completely misfitting, totally exposed roster with literally only one single reason (Nique Clifford) to be excited to watch next season. I do not buy them as an organization, much less a basketball team. I do not care they won 40 games last season. This team will not.

12. New Orleans Pelicans (Last season: 21-61, 14th place)

New Orleans is pretty likely to finish beneath the two teams above them. You cannot expect Zion Williamson to remain healthy until he does. But, I’m just saying, there might be something here if he does. Allow me to cautiously buy stock in Jordan Poole’s reemergence as a useful player for a winner. Put him, Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, and Kevon Looney into some Point Williamson lineups and they can win games. Honestly, it’s going to be a massive bummer when, in January, we look up to see this weird, feisty Pelicans group sitting at 23-20 only for Dejounte Murray to come back and ruin it all.

YOU’RE TRYING TO MAKE ME PUT YOU HIGHER

11. Portland Trail Blazers (Last season: 36-46, 12th place)

Portland had the league’s fourth-best defensive rating after the All-Star break. They ditched the two players (Deandre Ayton, Anfernee Simons) most susceptible for missing rotations; they added Jrue Holiday and a full season of Matisse Thybulle, who only played 15 games. I’m not entirely sure how they will score. Their first, second, and third options might be Shaedon Sharpe, Deni Advija, and Yang Hansen, and I’m only sort of kidding. I’m still not at all sold on Scoot Henderson. But this team has something, and I could see it happening as soon as next year.

I’M TRYING, AND FAILING, NOT TO WORRY

10. Memphis Grizzlies (Last season: 48-34, 8th place)

I worry about the Grizzlies. Jaren Jackson Jr.’s injury is the first worry, although he’s supposed to be back by training camp. Ja Morant’s next injury is the next most worrisome; that’s just his career’s reality. I worry for Ty Jerome, too. He outperformed the quality of his shots more than any player in the league last season. It’s usually Kevin Durant, and Jerome was slightly above that. What’s the replicability for that? And, while Desmond Bane’s departure creates room for Vince Williams Jr. or more-so GG Jackson leaps, that’s sort of like leaving your apartment’s back door open and hoping someone wanders in to be your new roommate. Still, they need some sort of real role if they’re ever gonna moderate volume shooting with winning basketball. I just worry about it, too.

I’m sure the Grizzlies would admit, at least privately, that this roster will look different in a year or so. But they’ve got good players. Santi Aldama and Scottie Pippen Jr. help you win. Cedric Coward will, too. It’s enough to fend off the teams listed above. I think.

9. Dallas Mavericks (Last season: 39-43, 10th place)

Kyrie Irving won’t be healthy for months. Anthony Davis’ status for opening day isn’t clear. Dereck Lively II had offseason surgery. Those are, quite frankly, this roster’s three most important and best players to begin next season. (It’s a matter of time before Cooper Flagg changes that, but I still think it will take some time, which should be granted to a guy who’s still only 18!) Even if Davis and Lively are ready to go opening night — they absolutely may be — it still does suggest caution to the incoming season. This is, after all, a team that went 2-3 against teams better than .500 when Davis was healthy last season. The length and rim protection is salivating; the depth of quality players is useful. The shooting, less so. The playmaking, even with D’Angelo Russell, might end up leaning heavily on an adjusting Flagg and, dare I say it, Brandon Williams.

Dallas has more raw talent, top to bottom, than Memphis and perhaps even one or two teams not yet listed even prior to Irving’s return. But no team in the West goes into next season knowing it’ll miss more games from All-NBA players — Davis, even if he’s ready, can’t be expected to play 70-plus — than Dallas does next year. If Irving was healthy, it’d look different next season. And, hey, if they’re banking on the team they’ll have with him healthy late in the year, then this finish still gets them in. There are avenues where this works out alright. But in this conference, there is very little sympathy to those who say, “Well, just wait until we’re healthy.”

I have other concerns, too, but perhaps it’s just because I think about this team so much every single day. Objectively, with three non-shooting centers, they’re trying something totally unique to the modern era. But this low of a ranking is about the injuries, Irving’s specifically, which I cannot not worry for.

YOU’RE TRYING TO MAKE GENERATIONAL GUYS FIX YOUR ROSTERS

8. San Antonio Spurs (Last season: 34-48, 13th place)

San Antonio may still be starting Harrison Barnes next season. That’s fine; Barnes has been a wonderful workhorse now for four franchises. There’s a limit on what you can do with a guy who isn’t a splashy defender — right spots, works hard, often just doesn’t make the play — and an actively negative passer who has simply never read the floor well. Alongside him on the wings, they’ll toss in Jeremy Sochan and Julian Champagnie. If Stephon Castle can turn into, like, prime Marcus Smart for them, that would actually be a beautiful two-way fit. Keldon Johnson is a minutes eater, nothing more. Point is, between the centers and the guards, there’s a bunch of bang average forwards. They’re just dudes. (Sochan’s a fascinating dude, one you’d love to grab a drink with, but as of now still has not earned anything more than ‘dude’ status.)

Might not matter. Victor Wembanyama’s coming for the throne.

7. Los Angeles Lakers (Last season: 50-32, 3rd place)

Luka Dončić, at his peak, raises your team’s floor high enough to need an elevator. Everyone says he’ll be at his peak next year. Everyone knows he’ll have to be at his peak next year. Even the Lakers can’t look at their roster and think otherwise. It’s not a bad roster. No team’s is out West, not really, with those two or three exceptions noted above. Ayton will probably get cursed out by Dončić before November, but he’ll be fine. It’s a quirkiest big man roller he’s had in his career, and Dončić will enjoy learning how to set up his oddly great mid-range game. Jake LaRavia’s pretty good. Rui Hachimura’s still pretty good. It’s not really the end of the world that they lost Dorian Finney-Smith. I’m a little bummed they waived Jordan Goodwin, who I’m not entirely convinced would have had a worse year than this version of Smart, but we’ll see.

It’s a fine roster, even a good one. It’s not great. Dončić can make it something more akin to that if he’s back to being the co-best player in the league, which at the very peak of his powers was something he shared with Nikola Jokić. The Lakers are sort of expecting him to.

6. Golden State Warriors (Last season: 48-34, 7th place)

Al Horford must deeply enjoy setting screens. He’s going to love every second of that, whenever they officially announce he’s signing, with the Warriors. Jimmy Butler, too, probably couldn’t have found a better coda to his career than The Bay. Then they’ve got a bunch of guys who just do stuff, sometimes not enough stuff, but whatever, Steve Kerr’s still going to play them.

It’s still going to come down to Stephen Curry making the offense whir and, to only a slightly lesser extent, Draymond Green elevating this defense beyond any reasonable place it should be given the team otherwise lacking much size or talent there. Golden State has done an admirable job building one last team that could reasonably, if you squint your eyes, make the conference finals again. That’s all you can ask for a Curry twilight.

YOU’RE TRYING TO MAKE THAT LEAP

5. Minnesota Timberwolves (Last season: 49-33, 6th place)

It’s pretty much the same roster, minus Nickeil Alexander-Walker, that went to last year’s conference finals. Minnesota clicked with Julius Randle towards the end of last season. I hear the arguments that the Timberwolves could be a team that doesn’t quite put it together. I just think they’ve proven too much, over these past two regular seasons, to think that.

4. Houston Rockets (Last season: 52-30, 2nd place)

I loved the Kevin Durant trade. I think this Rockets team is awesome; I respect their second-place finish last season. I’m holding off on anointing them the conference’s second-best team. Kevin Durant, in the best possible way, is sort of a zero calories scorer at this point of his career, in the sense that he doesn’t do much to elevate an offense around him. But there’s a difference between zero calories and empty ones. I drink sparkling water specifically because I can knock back four, enjoy every sip, and not worry about skimping elsewhere. The point is, Durant isn’t going to transform every second of last season’s clunky offense into a streamlined machine. But, for 20 or 30 possessions each game, he’s going to run the Durant offense, which equaled out to nearly 27 points per game last season on 64 percent True Shooting. That’s absurd, ridiculous efficiency, and it’s a nice get for any offense to have as a focal point.

I still believe the offense, broadly speaking, will need a Reed Sheppard emergence or an Alperen Şengün leap to turn into something that I’m viewing on par with the three teams to come. Or, dare I say it, maybe Amen Thompson’s arriving as the solution before we even expect it. If those things happen, I’ll be too low on them. It’s just not quite yet guaranteed to happen next year.

YOU’RE TRYING TO GET THAT REMATCH

3. L.A. Clippers (Last season: 50-32, 5th place)

The league’s oldest team is the deepest, too. And where I’ve critiqued Dallas for having too much redundancy, L.A.’s just makes sense. Brook Lopez backing up Ivica Zubac; Chris Paul as the pick-and-roll maestro who seamlessly fits behind James Harden; Bradley Beal adding oomph to the Bogdan Bogdanović role that Bogdanović struggled to provide last season. I like all of that. I like John Collins’ two-way fit even more. It’s an awesome team, one which doesn’t need Kawhi Leonard to play 60 games. The Clippers can’t stray too far from last season’s defensive identity. One of Kris Dunn or Derrick Jones Jr. should still start. Don’t minimize them. But for a team chock full of olds, there will be time for everyone to get their shine.

The Clippers won 50 games last season despite Leonard playing just 37. Is he still a top-20 player? Any given game, he might be, especially as the season grows late. Harden isn’t that. Zubac, as great as he’s been, isn’t that. It’s hard to win without a top-10 guy, much less with what the Clippers are trying. If there’s an overreaction to their summer, it’s that. But they’ve done everything this summer to earn their rematch against the …

2. Denver Nuggets (Last season: 50-32, 4th place)

… who had an even better summer, if for no other reason than the players they added to their roster, equally well fitting, get to play with Nikola Jokić. Now that’s a top-20 player, minus nineteen. There is nothing, other than some defensive rebounds, which do matter, that Michael Porter Jr. is better at than Cam Johnson. Those margins are pretty slim in most cases, but I’ll take Johnson figuring out synergy — and taking more 3s, goddamnit, Porter never took enough — with Jokić as a welcome chance to watch him figure out another dude’s idiosyncrasies. No need with Bruce Brown. Tim Hardaway Jr. as an eighth man is his perfect role. Even then, Jonas Valančiūnas is the team’s biggest addition. Having a proper second center, someone who can shore up the non-Jokić shifts better than any prior backup, is a godsend for this team. This is the conference’s — the league’s, really — second-best team until further notice.

YOU’RE TRYING TO REPEAT

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (Last season: 68-14, 1st place)

Haha, they get to play Nikola Topić next season, too. Haha.